As the summer of 2026 settles in, Texas cotton farmers find themselves in a precarious situation due to escalating drought conditions that threaten to decimate yields across the state.
This year, only 32% of Texas is classified as having adequate moisture levels, down from 64% at the beginning of April. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that cotton production in Texas could fall by as much as 30% compared to the previous year, marking one of the steepest declines in recent history.
“The drought is unlike anything we’ve seen in decades,” said Mark Johnson, President of the Texas Cotton Growers Association. “Farmers are struggling to keep their crops alive, and many are unable to irrigate effectively due to dwindling water resources.”
In areas like Lubbock County, which is often referred to as the heart of Texas cotton farming, farmers are now facing difficult decisions regarding crop management. The cost of irrigation has skyrocketed, and many growers are considering abandoning their fields altogether.
According to the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, the average cost of irrigation has increased by over 40% since last year. Farmers are now spending an estimated $300 per acre for irrigation services, a figure that could spell financial ruin for many small operations.
As a result, the Texas cotton market has begun to react. Prices for cotton futures rose by 10% in June, as traders anticipate a significant drop in supply. “The market is responding to the harsh realities farmers are facing,” stated Linda Ramirez, a commodity analyst at AgriTrade Partners. “We expect prices to continue to rise if the drought persists.”
The impact of the drought extends beyond the cotton fields. Local economies in cotton-centric areas like Lubbock and Plainview are bracing for a downturn, as reduced production often leads to less demand for local services and goods. “Our community is built on agriculture,” explained Mayor Sarah Jenkins of Lubbock. “If farmers suffer, we all suffer.”
To combat the situation, some farmers are turning to innovative technologies, such as precision agriculture and moisture sensors, to make the most of their remaining water supplies. Yet, the upfront costs of these technologies remain a barrier for many.
As the summer progresses, the future of Texas cotton hangs in the balance. If the drought conditions do not improve, 2026 could go down as one of the most challenging years for the industry. “We need rain, and we need it soon,” Johnson concluded.